2.3.1 Though India has a long tradition of comprehensive crop statistics, at present a steady deterioration in the quality of data on crops, which are traditionally covered under the system of Agricultural Statistics has occurred. In addition to this, there are several data gaps on new crops and ancillary agricultural activities. Despite impressive and commendable achievements in agriculture over the years, there is a growing concern over the quality of Agricultural Statistics that are now available. Statistics of crop production – both area and yield – are based on scientifically designed methodologies. These designs have been arrived at after considerable experimentation and discussion among scholars of international repute. However, the present status of crop statistics is far from satisfactory. There have been frequent revisions of crop estimates and they have been quite steep on a number of occasions. The publication of final estimates on crop production is considerably delayed. The quality of land use and crop data has suffered seriously for a variety of reasons. Village officials who play a key role in collecting land use statistics do not attach much importance to this work. Higher-level revenue officials too do not pay adequate attention to this activity at the time of supervision. All these factors have contributed to the deterioration in the quality of crop statistics even though efforts have been made to bring about improvements through the Timely Reporting Scheme (TRS) and the Improvement of Crop Statistics (ICS) Scheme. Thus the pillars on which the entire edifice of Agricultural Statistics rests have been weakened. The Commission has, therefore, made a reassessment and examined the methodology as well as the organisational improvements required for improving Agricultural Statistics.
2.3.2 The major reason for the poor quality of area statistics is the failure of the patwari agency to devote adequate time and attention to the girdawari operations while yield estimates suffer on account of the poor performance of field operations. The heavy workload of the primary agency contributes substantially to the poor quality and delay in the availability of Agricultural Statistics. In order to reduce the workload, it may not be an appropriate proposition to increase the number of primary workers, at this juncture, due to financial constraints.
2.3.3 At present, the area statistics are generated through complete enumeration in the temporarily settled States while in the permanently settled States these are arrived at through a sample of 20 per cent villages covered by the Establishment of an Agency for Reporting Agricultural Statistics (EARAS) scheme. The Commission’s assessment is that adequate improvements in the quality and timeliness of area statistics can be achieved if the girdawari is declared as a programme of high priority and the patwari is mandated to carry out the crop inspection, according to the prescribed time schedule, more importantly in the case of the 20 per cent villages under TRS and EARAS, if necessary by sparing him from other duties during that period. In addition to this, intensive supervision of the patwari’s work by higher-level revenue officials as well as by the technical staff of the Scheme for ICS with accountability for any lapses should be ensured. Once the TRS and EARAS are put on such sound footing, it is possible to use its results for framing not only the advance estimates but also the final estimates of crop area. Further, the Commission is of the view that data from a 20 per cent sample is large enough to estimate crop area with a sufficient degree of precision at the all-India, State and district levels. The Commission has, therefore, recommended that crop area forecasts and final area estimates issued by the Ministry of Agriculture should be based on the results of the TRS in the temporarily settled States and on those of EARAS in the permanently settled States. The revised system for the estimation of crop areas will also reduce the workload of the primary data collecting agencies and improve the quality of their work.
2.3.3 At present, the area statistics are generated through complete enumeration in the temporarily settled States while in the permanently settled States these are arrived at through a sample of 20 per cent villages covered by the Establishment of an Agency for Reporting Agricultural Statistics (EARAS) scheme. The Commission’s assessment is that adequate improvements in the quality and timeliness of area statistics can be achieved if the girdawari is declared as a programme of high priority and the patwari is mandated to carry out the crop inspection, according to the prescribed time schedule, more importantly in the case of the 20 per cent villages under TRS and EARAS, if necessary by sparing him from other duties during that period. In addition to this, intensive supervision of the patwari’s work by higher-level revenue officials as well as by the technical staff of the Scheme for ICS with accountability for any lapses should be ensured. Once the TRS and EARAS are put on such sound footing, it is possible to use its results for framing not only the advance estimates but also the final estimates of crop area. Further, the Commission is of the view that data from a 20 per cent sample is large enough to estimate crop area with a sufficient degree of precision at the all-India, State and district levels. The Commission has, therefore, recommended that crop area forecasts and final area estimates issued by the Ministry of Agriculture should be based on the results of the TRS in the temporarily settled States and on those of EARAS in the permanently settled States. The revised system for the estimation of crop areas will also reduce the workload of the primary data collecting agencies and improve the quality of their work.
2.3.5 At present, primary statistics of crop production are collected and compiled by the State Governments and consolidated for the nation as a whole by the Union Ministry of Agriculture. The Ministry compiles the crop production figures and releases a number of forecasts of crop production. The present system of release of the forecasts has been found to be subjective. The Commission is of the view that it is necessary to make an objective forecasting based on timely and detailed information on crop condition, meteorological parameters, water availability, crop damage, etc. Though the Ministry of Agriculture has been working in this direction, organisational strengthening with professional statisticians and experts in other related fields is required. While the use of Remote Sensing Technology does offer an alternative route for the regular flow of crop statistics, there are a number of issues that require to be sorted out before this can become extensively operational. Meanwhile, the existing programmes of Remote Sensing Technology must be pursued with active cooperation from the concerned agencies.
2.3.6 The data collected through Agricultural and Livestock Censuses are required for identifying and formulating policies and programmes for the rural population. However, as the results of these censuses are not available in time, this defeats the very purpose for which these censuses are conducted. The major reasons for the delay in the availability of the results from these censuses are the gargantuan nature of the task, the heavy workload on the part of the primary agencies and a lack of adequate administrative and technical supervision over the work of primary agencies. To circumvent these problems, there is a need for conducting the censuses not as complete enumeration but as sample censuses. Further, no relationship has been worked out based on the data collected through these two censuses because they are conducted independently with different field agencies, reference periods and basic units of enumeration. In view of several operational and substantive gains, the Commission has recommended the integration of the Livestock and Agricultural Censuses.
